A few scary reports this week have indicated that a crash in house prices in the UK may be in our immediate future.

There is evidence of the lowest mortgage approval rate in ten years and both the Halifax and Nationwide indicate that a drop in prices has already begun. Even more frightening Ernst & Young have said this week: “The housing market clearly looks as if it is heading for a double dip.”.

The problem seems to be that without cheap credit to prop them up UK house prices are no longer sustainable at their current prices. Without much access to credit, buyers are unable to push the prices up or even, it seems hold them up.

On the bright side many experts are arguing that the dip, if it comes, will not be dramatic. The fact that other indicators such as the repossession rate are still low is a good sign.

And David Hollingworth, from London & Country has this, more cheerful, opinion to add: “The market’s not going to drop off a cliff. Just because Halifax says it’s down 3.6% doesn’t mean it is going to stay that low. If you look at different indices they tell you different things. “

Overall the evidence suggests a dip but maybe not a dramatic one and hopefully not for too long.

According to new figures released this week many people looking to invest in property think London is the safest place to grab a new property.

Given all the rumours swirling around about double dip recessions and at the very least a second drop in house prices, people are cautious and London seems to be the answer. It is said to present the best opportunity for impressive yields even in these uncertain economic times.

The market in London for BTL hit its lowest point in June 2009. Since then rent prices have risen, on average a fantastic 16%. High end luxury accommodation in fashionable areas has fared especially well.

The particularly strong housing market in London is also likely to send tracker rate mortgages up. This will have two side effects. London resident are likely to continue to rent, perhaps for longer than they had planned. At the same time new residential landlords will struggle to get finance slowing down the growth of the private rented sector.

Both of these factors promise a continuation of demand outstripping supply and healthy rental prices remaining in place.

It is official. Tenant demand for rental properties is at a new high across Britain -according to reliable figures.

There was an increase of 61 thousand applicants so far this year. The rise in demand between the second and third quarters was 19%. Overall the rise for the year stands at 44%.

This is pretty impressive stuff and does indeed back up all the speculation of the last few months.

The other thing confirmed is the lack of supply to match this unprecedented demand. While demand grows the availability of rental properties shrunk by 6.9 % over the same period. The shocking truth about this is that there are now five times as many people wanting a property to rent in Britain as there are properties available.

That is a very sad statistic if you are looking for a roof over your family’s head.

And while it is easy to have sympathy for those poor house hunters it is hard to be very sympathetic towards the powers that be who had been warned that this time was approaching.

They were warned that over regulating the BTL industry or threatening to would drive landlords a way at time when the country was about to desperately need them.

It will be interesting to see what happens to their big plans for intrusive regulation as the reality of this situation dawns on them.Tenant Demand Hits Record High

It is official. Tenant demand for rental properties is at a new high across Britain -according to reliable figures.

 There was an increase of 61 thousand applicants so far this year. The rise in demand between the second and third quarters was 19%. Overall the rise for the year stands at 44%.

This is pretty impressive stuff and does indeed back up all the speculation of the last few months.

The other thing confirmed is the lack of supply to match this unprecedented demand. While demand grows the availability of rental properties shrunk by 6.9 % over the same period. The shocking truth about this is that there are now five times as many people wanting a property to rent in Britain as there are properties available.

That is a very sad statistic if you are looking for a roof over your family’s head.

And while it is easy to have sympathy for those poor house hunters it is hard to be very sympathetic towards the powers that be who had been warned that this time was approaching.

They were warned that over regulating the BTL industry or threatening to would drive landlords a way at time when the country was about to desperately need them.

It will be interesting to see what happens to their big plans for intrusive regulation as the reality of this situation dawns on them.

As usual with this small but very complex country of ours there are some pockets that are experiencing bizarre and specialized problems in the housing sector.

The area in the news at the moment is Reading where it is reported that housing prices are around nine times the average income.

The outcome of such a difficult situation is that there are nearly 5000 people on the waiting list for social housing. The strain on the public housing sector must be enormous and with a waiting list that long it is fair to say it is not coping that well.

The council in the area is putting the blame at the doorstep of the national government though not anyone in particular. They say successive governments have refused to allow the council to build enough homes and the result is a serious housing shortage that threatens one of the most basic of our human rights; shelter.

With no affordable housing in Reading and social housing filled to the gills, it is hard to see how the problem can be quickly resolved.

It is quite possible that the private rented sector will have a role to play but even that looks fraught. If the houses on the market are so high priced how will prospective landlords afford to buy them and then rent at an affordable price.

It is quite a scary thing that is going on there. 

The RLA is using some pretty strong language to describe recent government policy decisions that affect the private rented sector.

They say the housing policy is on the brink of collapsing into a complete shambles and they back it up with what they consider to be example after example of decisions with terrible consequences. 

The first thing they point to is the chancellor’s announcement that there will be a cap placed on benefits. 

As RLA director Chris Town puts it “coupled with other measures, this is going to have serious consequences for housing provision in the UK

A benefit cap is totally out of touch with the obvious reality of a UK housing market that, like many other living costs, varies according to where you live and local property prices.”

The scope for trouble with this is huge. As the RLA points out the cap should be area specific. The perception that people living in more salubrious areas are dwelling in big luxury mansions is not backed by any evidence. Mostly these people are families living modestly in the area in which they were born and grew up.

The obvious consequence of a blanket cap is that people are forced out of the communities that have been their homes for decades, perhaps even generations. A side effect of this will be the severing of very important community ties.

This is clearly not the time for that kind of thing. People are doing it tough enough already without being forced away from their support networks.

This week the Residential Landlords Association launched what can only be described as the most ambitious landlord initiative in history; and it revolves around self regulation.

The Residential Landlords Association Accreditation Scheme is designed to bring about co operation between local councils and professional landlords who are committed to maintaining high standards for the sector and benefitting from the enhanced reputation that brings.

“The intention is to foster better communication and mutual understanding between landlords, tenants and local authorities and to provide better living conditions in higher standards of decent, safe homes,” according to RLA chairman Alan Ward.

The scheme is open to all landlords including those not registered with the RLA and the RLA has set up a body to over see it but promise a very hands off approach.

The idea is to help landlords to communicate to each other all the skills, information and best practice tips they have learned over the years and by doing so, hopefully, improve standards for everyone.

The scheme will recognise landlords not properties but clearly inspections of individual landlords properties will be part of the process of becoming accredited.

It is hard not to get behind such a scheme. Part of the reason behind the idea is fairly transparent; the RLA clearly think that such a move on the part of landlords may show enough ‘willing’ to hold off enforced regulation.

More power to them I say.

Nigel Terrington, chief executive at Paragon Group, has released a statement today that indicates  landlords are starting to expand their portfolios at quite a dramatic rate.

According to Mr Terrington landlords have been poised to purchase for quite some time and are now starting to swoop on available finance and properties. Confidence in the sector, he says, is sky high.

He is also very pleased that the growth in the market is mainly being driven by experienced professional landlords as these are the people we need at the helm of private rented property with a predicted housing crisis looming.

“The fact that nearly half of buy-to-let business during the period was for experienced landlords to expand their portfolios is encouraging because it is this group of landlords who will drive the growth of the market.”

If he is right then we have to think we are in a better position than the last time the rented sector boomed, when with no disrespect intended, many landlords were fairly clueless having been thrown into the role against their will.

Mr Terrington is sounding very optimistic about the prospects of private landlords and it is great to hear this level of positive thinking starting to seep into the sector. As he says:

“With the growth of tenant demand showing little sign of slowing, the UK needs more properties in the private rented sector to help keep pace.”

Let’s hope they get them and the sector can provide housing to the nation.

It is a fairly true indicator of how landlords are feeling that over 2000 of them have joined Landlord Actions ‘Rebalancing the Law’ campaign in under a month. It is aimed at making the eviction process fairer on landlords.

We talked a little bit about this campaign a few weeks ago but as it gathers speed there is just time to highlight it again before the deadline of November 5th arrives.

Paul Shamplina, Founder of Landlord Action, comments, “the fact that over 2,000 landlords have given their support to this campaign is a clear indication that landlords are unhappy. The process takes far too long – something that Landlord Action sees on a daily basis. 2,000 landlords are now asking the Government to recognise landlords’ concerns and to begin taking steps to improve the situation.”

If you are concerned about landlords getting a fair deal then you need to get involved now.

It needs to be the first thing you do when you finish reading this. I am not in the habit of backing cause and pushing campaigns but I think this one is important. The eviction process is too biased. In cases where it is clear that the tenant is at fault there should be a right to expediency for the landlord

They have bills to pay too.

It seems landlords want the process changed to allow for quicker evictions of problem tenants and they want it quick smart. Fair enough I say; this has been a problem area in our industry for far too long. I am all for giving the tenant a decent go but at the moment the balance is all out of whack.

This latest push for change is being lead by Landlord Action. It is backed by the Residential Landlords Association plus Mike Weatherley, Tory MP for Hove and Portslade in Sussex.

Paul Shamplina, spokesperson for Landlord Action on the issue, said: “We are seeking changes to the law in order to speed up the eviction process. This is particularly important when there is a clear case of non-payment of rent or anti-social behaviour.

They are also pursuing the very worthy goal of more access for landlords to their own properties when the tenant is behaving in a reprehensible way.

Quite rightly the powers behind this recognise the difference between  cases where there is suggestion that the landlord is in the wrong, these will genuinely take longer to sort out. Say an example where the property has been poorly maintained but there are cut and dried cases where the tenant is simply not paying rent or damaging the property or both.

There is no need for the long drawn out process landlords are forced to endure in such circumstances. Often they are pulled into debt themselves or have to watch while their investment is devalued.

Quicker evictions, now. The push has my full support.

Nigel Terrington, chief executive at Paragon Group, has released a statement today that indicates  landlords are starting to expand their portfolios at quite a dramatic rate.

According to Mr Terrington landlords have been poised to purchase for quite some time and are now starting to swoop on available finance and properties. Confidence in the sector, he says, is sky high.

He is also very pleased that the growth in the market is mainly being driven by experienced professional landlords as these are the people we need at the helm of private rented property with a predicted housing crisis looming.

“The fact that nearly half of buy-to-let business during the period was for experienced landlords to expand their portfolios is encouraging because it is this group of landlords who will drive the growth of the market.”

If he is right then we have to think we are in a better position than the last time the rented sector boomed, when with no disrespect intended, many landlords were fairly clueless having been thrown into the role against their will.

Mr Terrington is sounding very optimistic about the prospects of private landlords and it is great to hear this level of positive thinking starting to seep into the sector. As he says:

“With the growth of tenant demand showing little sign of slowing, the UK needs more properties in the private rented sector to help keep pace.”

Let’s hope they get them and the sector can provide housing to the nation.